|
| |
The link between
rainfall and food security
|
 |
|
Update
on current food insecurity situation in Kitui and Mwingi
May 2009
The following material is drawn from the report of
FEWSNET (the Kenya Famine Early Warning Systems Network), WFP and US Aid |
|
The
poor long rains, so far, in most of the southeastern and
coastal marginal agricultural lowlands and significant
parts of agropastoral and pastoral areas, are likely to
accentuate food insecurity.
-
Substantial crop losses
are expected to occur in the marginal agricultural
areas in the southeast and coast, which will likely
accelerate food insecurity.
-
Scarcity of maize has
driven prices to unprecedented levels, up to 180
percent above normal, in markets situated in pastoral
and marginal agricultural areas, underlining the
erosion of purchasing capacities for cereal-deficit
households.The food pipeline is under-resourced at this
point, and is dependent largely on carryover stocks
from the previous emergency distribution programmes.
-
Crop growth is
progressing favorably in most parts of the
key-producing Rift Valley, Nyanza, and Western
highlands, and a good maize harvest is anticipated,
barring poor rains or unexpected events between now and
August.
|
Food
security summary
The
food security prognosis for the long-rains season is dismal
in areas that are already undergoing significant food
stress, such as the southeastern marginal agricultural area
which includes Kitui and Mwingi districts.
Rains
have been below normal and prospects for improvement are
dependent on increased rains through the first days of
June. The current food security situation for marginal
agricultural farm households is precarious: the impacts of
poor rains in several areas, food prices that are well
above normal, and livestock loss due to conflict and
disease, if not mitigated, could cause a severe
deterioration in food security. Proposed food and non-food
requirements need to be resourced substantially so as to
avoid an upsurge in numbers of highly food insecure, and in
some instances, extremely food insecure households.
Elsewhere in Kenya, crop production is expected to be
favorable in key growing highlands that supply over 80
percent of national maize output. |
|
The
2009 long rains begin poorly in significant areas of
marginal agricultural and pastoral areas
The
2009 long-rains season is now (May 2009) underway across
the country. However, substantial rainfall deficits have
been reported in the southeastern and northern pastoral
areas, through the end of April. Although the long rains is
the minor season in the southeastern cropping lowlands, the
failure of the just-concluded short-rains season, in
addition to three or four successive poor seasons before
that, make a good long-rains season necessary to avert a
serious decline in food security.
Food
insecurity set to deepen in the southeastern and coastal
lowlands due to likely crop failure
The
southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural cropping
lowlands, outside the coastal strip, have experienced very
poor rains through the first week of May, with some
exceptions. While the long-rains are highly unreliable, a
succession of three to four poor seasons has resulted in
deteriorated household food security.
|
Cropping
zones, unlike pastoral areas, are highly sensitive to the
timing of rains. The absence of rains at critical
development stages, such as germination, tasselling,
flowering, and grain-filling usually signal substantial
crop loss. Of additional concern is the fact that the next
harvest is not anticipated until March 2010. Although the
longrains harvest contributes only 30 percent of total
annual output in the lowlands, a series of crop failures
coupled with high food prices have combined to erode
household purchasing capacities. Maize prices were 80-200
percent higher than average in all districts in April 2009,
affecting the inability of households to meet food needs,
as all other income sources have declined or remained
static. |
|
Coping
Strategies make matters worse:
Unfortunately,
livelihood strategies intended to mitigate the shortfall in
production and bridge the food gap are slowly eroding and
increasingly detrimental. Some of the strategies that were
first employed when significant gaps in food access opened
up in the third quarter of 2008, are maintained still
today. They include increased charcoal production, sending
children into the labor force, reducing the number of meals
to one a day instead of three, and selling livestock at low
prices to facilitate the purchase of food. Despite these
strategies, rates
of child malnutrition are rising and higher than average in
most of the drought-hit lowlands.
Nearly
one million people are currently estimated to be highly
food insecure in the marginal agricultural districts of
Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, Mbeere, Mwingi, and Tharaka, and
an additional 300,000 in the coastal districts. These
numbers represent 32 and 15 percent of the population of
the southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas,
respectively.
|
Food
insecurity for drought and conflict-affected areas likely
to worsen
The
joint WFP/GoK Emergency Operation for populations affected
by drought and post-election violence in Kenya finished at
the end of April. The approval of the Protracted Relief and
Recovery Operation (PRRO) is expected in the second half of
May. Under the new operation, WFP will feed some 3.5
million beneficiaries, including 2.6 million people
affected by drought, 150,000 by the post-election crisis,
and 850,000 in the expanded school feeding programme.
Pre-positioning of food for the expected scale-up is
underway.
The
operational scale-up has an increased number of
beneficiaries and wider geographic coverage, from 1.2
million in 17 districts to 2.6 million people in 26
districts.In April, WFP delivered food to selected health
facilities in the drought-hit marginal agricultural
districts of Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, and Mwingi, coupled
with staff training in readiness for the implementation of
the supplementary feeding program for children under five
years of age, and pregnant and nursing mothers, under the
technical guidance of UNICEF and implemented by Ministry of
Public Health Services.
|
|
Conclusion
The
next month, through the first week of June is one of the
most critical periods of this year’s food security
calendar.
Continued
poor rains in the marginal, agropastoral, and pastoral
areas could signal a severe deterioration in food security
if planned food and non-food interventions are not
instituted. Specific areas within these zones that are
experiencing a fair season are already under significant
pressure as most clustering of livestock is concentrating
in such areas. In contrast, crop production outside the
marginal agricultural areas is likely to be favorable —
continued normal to good rains have been forecast. However,
the growing season runs through January 2010 and will
require close monitoring. A good cropping season is
critical, as it would dampen the unprecedented maize price
increases being experienced in most areas of the country. |
Previous
Food Security Warnings
|
|
Food
Security Summary: (Issued
February
2009)
Food security has deteriorated to critical levels in many parts of
Kenya, including Kitui and Mwingi.
A
succession of failed rain seasons, livestock diseases, conflict in
pastoral areas, the unprecedented rise in food and non-food prices, crop
failure, and substantial gaps in non-food interventions have combined to
precipitate acute food insecurity while accentuating the chronic food
insecurity that characterizes the arid and semi-arid areas such as Kitui
and Mwingi. External interventions are necessary to avert an acute food
and livelihood crisis or even an emergency in some areas, from January
through to June 2009, at least. |
Background
The
failure of the 2008 October to December short rains after a succession of
three poor seasons has precipitated a likely humanitarian and livelihood
crisis. The rains were delayed by 20-40 days and lasted less than three
weeks. Little or no rains were reported during December, culminating in
widespread crop failure.
Only
20-50 percent of normal rainfall was received. The short-rains season
often compensates for poor precipitation during the long rains season,
especially in these areas which are overwhelmingly short rains-dependent. Across Ukambani, which
includes Kitui and Mwingi districts, between 3-4 million people have not
harvested crops in the last season. |
The Government has indicated that ten
million persons are in need. The ten million figure includes between 3.5
– 4.1 million urban poor. The
number also includes a provisional estimate of 3.2 million
drought-affected marginal farmers, agropastoralists, and pastoralists. Another
2 million of the ten million in need are already highly vulnerable due to
HIV/AIDS and poverty. An
additional 850,000 school children need
to be included in the expanded School Feeding Programme.
About 750,000 children are already included in the on-going school feeding
programme |
|
Impacts
of the 2008 short rains on Kitui
The
marginal agricultural livelihood zone, which includes Kitui, Mwingi, and
Machakos, is the worst-affected area, reporting near-total crop failure
during the 2008 short-rains season.
These
marginal agricultural districts are short-rains dependent, deriving up to
70 percent of their annual output from the short-rains season. The failure
of the season is particularly critical because the next significant
harvest is not expected until March 2010. Farm households are under severe
food stress after three successive failed seasons and exceptionally high
food and non-food prices, both of which have eroded their resilience to
shocks like the poor rains. As a result of the poor rains, water for
household use is increasingly scarce, resulting in an increase in its
price. |
Farm
households are trekking up to 10 kilometers in search of water for both
household and livestock use.
While livestock production would normally be used to mitigate crop losses,
low numbers of livestock and their poor body conditions, as a result of
extended trekking in search of water and poor pasture, has caused a 50
percent decline in their value. Increasingly, households are depending on
undesirable coping strategies, such as charcoal production, which further
degrade the environment and endanger future production.
Rapidly
eroding purchasing power resulting from several poor production seasons,
high food and non-food prices and poor livestock body conditions has also
compromised non-food expenditure, most notably for school and medical
care. If the dry conditions persist, livestock mortality could begin to
rise, resulting in a livelihood crisis. An estimated 1.7 million persons
are highly food insecure and under severe stress, as compared to 230,000
in August 2008 in the Marginal Agricultural Livelihood zone. |
|
Overall
National Maize Production
The
Ministry of Agriculture has reported that national maize output for the
2008/’09 production season is about 2.16 million MT and could be much
lower, once final figures are compiled. National output is close to 20
percent lower than the short-term average. Poor rainfall in the
southeastern, coastal lowlands and the central highlands coupled with
lowered production in key growing areas has precipitated the decline in
output. Experts predict a worrying deficit of 190,000 MT at the end of the
2008/’09 marketing year. The analysis suggests that there will be no
maize in the market from May through the onset of the harvest in the
middle of July. However, the deficit will be felt much earlier than May
because much of the “available” maize is not accessible, being held by
a few farmers, traders and millers. If the long rains perform poorly, the
actual deficit through August while be much bigger than initial estimates
suggest. Therefore, the period between May through August requires very
close monitoring. In addition, the Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) requires
an additional 540,000 MT to fulfill its statutory requirement. Initially,
the SGR was drawn down to current low levels to clear old stocks in
anticipation of a good long rains harvest.
|
However,
the season was mediocre and the remaining SGR was released on to the
market, in a bid to moderate the sharply rising prices. National supply is
also constrained by lowered imports from Tanzania and Uganda. It is
estimated that cross-border imports will be only 40 percent of their
normal levels.January 2009 maize prices are 100-120 percent higher than
previous averages, severely eroded purchasing capacities of highly
vulnerable pastoralists, marginal farmers and urban dwellers, entrenching
further their food insecurity.
Wide
disparities in food prices are evidenced by the difference in prices
observed outside the ‘grain basket’ of the North Rift. Maize prices in
pastoral markets are 100-127 percent higher than those observed in Eldoret
market, the center of the grain basket, illustrating the low level of
market integration between respective markets. Prices observed in coastal
marginal markets are about 90 percent higher, while those observed in
Nairobi are only 45 percent higher than those in the surplus Eldoret
market. |
|
Inadequate supply of maize
Early
warning messages had been communicated in mid-year 2008 on the likelihood
of a maize shortage. However adequate measures were not put in place to
address the maize shortfall that is currently being observed. According to
the Ministry of Agriculture, in mid-January 2009 12 million bags are in
stock: however food distribution has not been consistent and the maize has
not reached the market. The food that is not reaching the markets is
reported to be either with farmers, traders, millers and the National
Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB). The current food stock will last up
until April 2009. The Government has therefore recently indicated that the
country now faces a deficit of 10 million bags which equates to 900,000
tons of maize. The Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) is currently empty. Under
normal circumstances the SGR should be filled with 6 million bags. The
Government has indicated that it will procure 2 million bags and the
private sector will procure another 3 million bags. The private sector who
were expected to provide the 3 million bags, have not shown interest in
the procurement process due to mixed signals on the market prices, and
reluctance by the government to grant import tax waivers. |
|
|
We
support people in need in Kitui, Kenya.