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The link between rainfall and food security

Update on current food insecurity situation in Kitui and Mwingi  

May 2009

The following material is drawn from the report of FEWSNET (the Kenya Famine Early Warning Systems Network), WFP and US Aid

The poor long rains, so far, in most of the southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural lowlands and significant parts of agropastoral and pastoral areas, are likely to accentuate food insecurity.

  • Substantial crop losses are expected to occur in the marginal agricultural areas in the southeast and coast, which will likely accelerate food insecurity.

  • Scarcity of maize has driven prices to unprecedented levels, up to 180 percent above normal, in markets situated in pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, underlining the erosion of purchasing capacities for cereal-deficit households.The food pipeline is under-resourced at this point, and is dependent largely on carryover stocks from the previous emergency distribution programmes.

  • Crop growth is progressing favorably in most parts of the key-producing Rift Valley, Nyanza, and Western highlands, and a good maize harvest is anticipated, barring poor rains or unexpected events between now and August.

Food security summary

The food security prognosis for the long-rains season is dismal in areas that are already undergoing significant food stress, such as the southeastern marginal agricultural area which includes Kitui and Mwingi districts. 

Rains have been below normal and prospects for improvement are dependent on increased rains through the first days of June. The current food security situation for marginal agricultural farm households is precarious: the impacts of poor rains in several areas, food prices that are well above normal, and livestock loss due to conflict and disease, if not mitigated, could cause a severe deterioration in food security. Proposed food and non-food requirements need to be resourced substantially so as to avoid an upsurge in numbers of highly food insecure, and in some instances, extremely food insecure households. Elsewhere in Kenya, crop production is expected to be favorable in key growing highlands that supply over 80 percent of national maize output.

The 2009 long rains begin poorly in significant areas of marginal agricultural and pastoral areas

The 2009 long-rains season is now (May 2009) underway across the country. However, substantial rainfall deficits have been reported in the southeastern and northern pastoral areas, through the end of April. Although the long rains is the minor season in the southeastern cropping lowlands, the failure of the just-concluded short-rains season, in addition to three or four successive poor seasons before that, make a good long-rains season necessary to avert a serious decline in food security. 

Food insecurity set to deepen in the southeastern and coastal lowlands due to likely crop failure

The southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural cropping lowlands, outside the coastal strip, have experienced very poor rains through the first week of May, with some exceptions. While the long-rains are highly unreliable, a succession of three to four poor seasons has resulted in deteriorated household food security.

Cropping zones, unlike pastoral areas, are highly sensitive to the timing of rains. The absence of rains at critical development stages, such as germination, tasselling, flowering, and grain-filling usually signal substantial crop loss. Of additional concern is the fact that the next harvest is not anticipated until March 2010. Although the longrains harvest contributes only 30 percent of total annual output in the lowlands, a series of crop failures coupled with high food prices have combined to erode household purchasing capacities. Maize prices were 80-200 percent higher than average in all districts in April 2009, affecting the inability of households to meet food needs, as all other income sources have declined or remained static.

Coping Strategies make matters worse:

Unfortunately, livelihood strategies intended to mitigate the shortfall in production and bridge the food gap are slowly eroding and increasingly detrimental. Some of the strategies that were first employed when significant gaps in food access opened up in the third quarter of 2008, are maintained still today. They include increased charcoal production, sending children into the labor force, reducing the number of meals to one a day instead of three, and selling livestock at low prices to facilitate the purchase of food. Despite these strategies,  rates of child malnutrition are rising and higher than average in most of the drought-hit lowlands.

Nearly one million people are currently estimated to be highly food insecure in the marginal agricultural districts of Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, Mbeere, Mwingi, and Tharaka, and an additional 300,000 in the coastal districts. These numbers represent 32 and 15 percent of the population of the southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas, respectively. 

 

Food insecurity for drought and conflict-affected areas likely to worsen

The joint WFP/GoK Emergency Operation for populations affected by drought and post-election violence in Kenya finished at the end of April. The approval of the Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO) is expected in the second half of May. Under the new operation, WFP will feed some 3.5 million beneficiaries, including 2.6 million people affected by drought, 150,000 by the post-election crisis, and 850,000 in the expanded school feeding programme. Pre-positioning of food for the expected scale-up is underway.

The operational scale-up has an increased number of beneficiaries and wider geographic coverage, from 1.2 million in 17 districts to 2.6 million people in 26 districts.In April, WFP delivered food to selected health facilities in the drought-hit marginal agricultural districts of Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, and Mwingi, coupled with staff training in readiness for the implementation of the supplementary feeding program for children under five years of age, and pregnant and nursing mothers, under the technical guidance of UNICEF and implemented by Ministry of Public Health Services.

Conclusion

The next month, through the first week of June is one of the most critical periods of this year’s food security calendar.

Continued poor rains in the marginal, agropastoral, and pastoral areas could signal a severe deterioration in food security if planned food and non-food interventions are not instituted. Specific areas within these zones that are experiencing a fair season are already under significant pressure as most clustering of livestock is concentrating in such areas. In contrast, crop production outside the marginal agricultural areas is likely to be favorable — continued normal to good rains have been forecast. However, the growing season runs through January 2010 and will require close monitoring. A good cropping season is critical, as it would dampen the unprecedented maize price increases being experienced in most areas of the country.

Previous Food Security Warnings

Food Security Summary: (Issued February 2009) 

Food security has deteriorated to critical levels in many parts of Kenya, including Kitui and Mwingi.

A succession of failed rain seasons, livestock diseases, conflict in pastoral areas, the unprecedented rise in food and non-food prices, crop failure, and substantial gaps in non-food interventions have combined to precipitate acute food insecurity while accentuating the chronic food insecurity that characterizes the arid and semi-arid areas such as Kitui and Mwingi. External interventions are necessary to avert an acute food and livelihood crisis or even an emergency in some areas, from January through to June 2009, at least.

Background

 The failure of the 2008 October to December short rains after a succession of three poor seasons has precipitated a likely humanitarian and livelihood crisis. The rains were delayed by 20-40 days and lasted less than three weeks. Little or no rains were reported during December, culminating in widespread crop failure.

Only 20-50 percent of normal rainfall was received. The short-rains season often compensates for poor precipitation during the long rains season, especially in these areas which are overwhelmingly short rains-dependent. Across Ukambani, which includes Kitui and Mwingi districts, between 3-4 million people have not harvested crops in the last season.

The Government has indicated that ten million persons are in need. The ten million figure includes between 3.5 – 4.1 million urban poor. The number also includes a provisional estimate of 3.2 million drought-affected marginal farmers, agropastoralists, and pastoralists. Another 2 million of the ten million in need are already highly vulnerable due to HIV/AIDS and poverty. An additional 850,000 school children need to be included in the expanded School Feeding Programme. About 750,000 children are already included in the on-going school feeding programme

Impacts of the 2008 short rains on Kitui

The marginal agricultural livelihood zone, which includes Kitui, Mwingi, and Machakos, is the worst-affected area, reporting near-total crop failure during the 2008 short-rains season.

These marginal agricultural districts are short-rains dependent, deriving up to 70 percent of their annual output from the short-rains season. The failure of the season is particularly critical because the next significant harvest is not expected until March 2010. Farm households are under severe food stress after three successive failed seasons and exceptionally high food and non-food prices, both of which have eroded their resilience to shocks like the poor rains. As a result of the poor rains, water for household use is increasingly scarce, resulting in an increase in its price.

 Farm households are trekking up to 10 kilometers in search of water for both household and livestock use. While livestock production would normally be used to mitigate crop losses, low numbers of livestock and their poor body conditions, as a result of extended trekking in search of water and poor pasture, has caused a 50 percent decline in their value. Increasingly, households are depending on undesirable coping strategies, such as charcoal production, which further degrade the environment and endanger future production.

Rapidly eroding purchasing power resulting from several poor production seasons, high food and non-food prices and poor livestock body conditions has also compromised non-food expenditure, most notably for school and medical care. If the dry conditions persist, livestock mortality could begin to rise, resulting in a livelihood crisis. An estimated 1.7 million persons are highly food insecure and under severe stress, as compared to 230,000 in August 2008 in the Marginal Agricultural Livelihood zone.

Overall National Maize Production

The Ministry of Agriculture has reported that national maize output for the 2008/’09 production season is about 2.16 million MT and could be much lower, once final figures are compiled. National output is close to 20 percent lower than the short-term average. Poor rainfall in the southeastern, coastal lowlands and the central highlands coupled with lowered production in key growing areas has precipitated the decline in output. Experts predict a worrying deficit of 190,000 MT at the end of the 2008/’09 marketing year. The analysis suggests that there will be no maize in the market from May through the onset of the harvest in the middle of July. However, the deficit will be felt much earlier than May because much of the “available” maize is not accessible, being held by a few farmers, traders and millers. If the long rains perform poorly, the actual deficit through August while be much bigger than initial estimates suggest. Therefore, the period between May through August requires very close monitoring. In addition, the Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) requires an additional 540,000 MT to fulfill its statutory requirement. Initially, the SGR was drawn down to current low levels to clear old stocks in anticipation of a good long rains harvest.

 

However, the season was mediocre and the remaining SGR was released on to the market, in a bid to moderate the sharply rising prices. National supply is also constrained by lowered imports from Tanzania and Uganda. It is estimated that cross-border imports will be only 40 percent of their normal levels.January 2009 maize prices are 100-120 percent higher than previous averages, severely eroded purchasing capacities of highly vulnerable pastoralists, marginal farmers and urban dwellers, entrenching further their food insecurity.

Wide disparities in food prices are evidenced by the difference in prices observed outside the ‘grain basket’ of the North Rift. Maize prices in pastoral markets are 100-127 percent higher than those observed in Eldoret market, the center of the grain basket, illustrating the low level of market integration between respective markets. Prices observed in coastal marginal markets are about 90 percent higher, while those observed in Nairobi are only 45 percent higher than those in the surplus Eldoret market.

Inadequate supply of maize

Early warning messages had been communicated in mid-year 2008 on the likelihood of a maize shortage. However adequate measures were not put in place to address the maize shortfall that is currently being observed. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, in mid-January 2009 12 million bags are in stock: however food distribution has not been consistent and the maize has not reached the market. The food that is not reaching the markets is reported to be either with farmers, traders, millers and the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB). The current food stock will last up until April 2009. The Government has therefore recently indicated that the country now faces a deficit of 10 million bags which equates to 900,000 tons of maize. The Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) is currently empty. Under normal circumstances the SGR should be filled with 6 million bags. The Government has indicated that it will procure 2 million bags and the private sector will procure another 3 million bags. The private sector who were expected to provide the 3 million bags, have not shown interest in the procurement process due to mixed signals on the market prices, and reluctance by the government to grant import tax waivers.