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Food Security and Drought Monitoring for Kitui and Mwingi

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Summary of the 2008 Long Rains Assessment Report published by Kenya Food Security Steering Group

August 2008

While Kenya has witnessed significant economic recovery over the last five years, a significant and growing proportion of the population suffers chronic and acute food insecurity. While the food sector has been quick and reliable in providing relief, ample evidence has shown that this alone is an inappropriate alternative to development-oriented interventions. 

It is estimated that about 1.38 million people in rural areas are highly food insecure and will not be able to meet their minimum food requirements in the coming six months, if external support is not granted. The worst affected areas include the marginal agricultural livelihoods in Kitui, Mwingi districts. 

The poor performance of the long-rains season is compounded by a complex combination of other food security factors, including the spread of peste de petits ruminants (PPR) livestock disease, heightened food and non-food prices, rising conflict, below normal short rains season, and reduced resilience caused by cumulative effect of consecutive years of eroded coping strategies caused by drought, floods and conflict.

In addition, the report highlights the precarious food security conditions of the urban populations. Preliminary indications have revealed that the number of people that are highly food insecure in urban slums as a result of rising food prices, as of July 2008, may be in the range of 3.5 million to 4.1 million up from about 3 million persons in 2007. 

Rainfall Performance during the 2008 Long Rains

The rainfall performance varied widely across the country during 2008, both in its spatial and temporal distribution. The rains started earlier-than-usual, in mid-March instead of early April, in the drought-prone areas of the country which include the northern, eastern and southern pastoral areas; and the southeastern and coastal lowlands. However, the early start was not sustained as rains ended within a month in several pastoral and marginal agricultural areas. Overall, the central areas of Kitui and Mwingi had between 20 and 50% of “normal” rainfall, while outer areas had 50 to 80%.

The impacts of generally poor rains in Kitui and Mwingi have resulted in the deterioration in household food security through a number of ways, including: accelerating early livestock migrations and leaving sedentary household members without milk and animal products;  compromising the condition of the livestock by weakening the livestock and predisposing them to disease; promoting conflict as competition for resources intensifies; causing crop failure in the marginal and agropastoral livelihoods, thus increasing the pressure on food prices; triggering severe depletion of water sources leading to extended trekking distances and increased price of water; causing an upsurge in disease as hygiene conditions deteriorate; and increasing school dropout rates especially in pastoral areas.

National maize production in the 2008 long rains season is expected to be about 12 percent less than last year due to crop losses of 60 percent in the central highlands and marginal agricultural areas as result of poor rains; erratic rains in southern parts of the Rift Valley highlands; sub-optimal application of fertilizers; low use of appropriate seed varieties, after nearly 30 percent increase in the cost of production; and a 10 percent reduction in area put to maize.

Food insecurity is compounded by the spread of the highly virulent peste de petiteruminant (PPR) disease which has a mortality rate of 50-80 percent and has caused substantial livestock deaths in the northern pastoral zones of Turkana and Samburu in particular, and is spreading rapidly to other pastoral areas. Serious water shortages have pushed the price of water from Ksh. 20 to 60 (€0.60) per 20 litre can, in the affected areas of Marsabit, for example, further eroding purchasing capacities.

The deteriorating conditions are manifested by heightened rates of child malnutrition.

In the Eastern Marginal livelihood zone which includes Mwingi and Kitui, the traditionally highly unreliable long rains were below normal in most areas. The quantity and distribution was poor and could not sustain crop development to maturity but facilitated regeneration of pasture, forage, and limited recharge of water sources. Most of these districts have experienced two to three successive poor seasons of below-normal rainfall.

Consequently, crop failure was widespread and is estimated to be about 80-90 percent for maize and beans and about 70-80 percent for green grams,  cow peas and pigeon peas. Pasture and browse remain adequate leading to good livestock body conditions. However, households are resorting to increased sales of livestock as a means of coping with high prices of food and non food commodities. Chicken are normally traded to finance immediate food purchases while cattle and goats are sold for household development projects and school fees. 

Sales of livestock will likely continue to increase through the next six months because no significant crop harvest is expected until February 2009. Livestock prices increased by 10 percent between January and July 2008, while cereal prices rose by 65 percent during the same period. Increased sales of livestock will invariably reduce their market price thus minimizing their purchasing capacities with respect to food and non-food commodities.

Food insecurity is deepening. The major threats to food insecurity include the adverse impacts of cumulative failed seasons, including heightening conflict over grazing resources, particularly in northern Mwingi; use of low yielding uncertified seeds; degraded soils that have lost their water holding capacities, leading to severe water shortages and the continued rise in fuel prices that drive most productive activities, including the running of posho mills.

Subsequently, the food security prognosis is unfavorable as trekking distances to water points for livestock and domestic use are expanding precariously, while household food stocks deplete. Rates of child malnutrition may begin to rise since milk yields are exceptionally low, averaging between 0.5-1 litres per cow, well below normal and household requirements. High food- and non-food prices suggest that farm households may not meet their dietary needs and food security is likely to deteriorate rapidly as the dry season intensifies.

Drought Monitoring in the Diocese of Kitui-April 2008

(The Diocese comprises the districts of Kitui and Mwingi)

The following information is drawn from Official Government of Kenya Arid Lands Resource Management Project, which is funded by the World Bank. The full publication can be viewed on the website http://www.aridland.go.ke/bullentins/2008/april/kitui.pdf

• Heavy downpours were received in the mixed farming livelihood zone during the first week of the month.

• The situation of the natural vegetation and pastures continued to improve

• Water is plenty and accessible, the main sources of water currently being used the surface water holding facilities i.e. traditional river wells, rock catchments, pans/dams

• District wide the body conditions of all kinds of livestock is good despite and outbreak of FMD and LSD in Mutomo (Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone).

• Livestock are grazing in their normal grazing zones

• The milk yield and consumption declined. This decline is attributed to decline in birth rates and alert about the outbreak of the above mentioned diseases.

• The livestock prices and food crop prices in the district remained within the previous months ranges

• The main food crop (maize) in the farm ranges from ½ to 1 metre in height whereas beans and cowpeas are at flowering stage. In the farms there is a good crop of pigeon peas which is at flowering stage

• Children's nutrition as based on MUAC (mean upper arm circumference) measurements remained stable.

• Community based food targeting and distribution by Catholic Diocese of Kitui

• Distribution of food to the vulnerable groups in Yatta by ADRA

• Regular school feeding program went on well in all the covered schools

• Construction of sand dams by GOAL Ireland, ALRMP, SASOL

• Drilling of boreholes by National water cooperation

• Construction of semea drift by ALRMP.

• Repair of Kitui- Mutomo road by the department of public works

• Maintenance of Mulango- Kavisuni road by DASS and Ministry of public works

• Mass vaccination of livestock against FMD & LSD in Mutomo district

• Promotion of fish farming (introduction of a new livelihood)

• Distribution of dairy goats and training on dairy goat management.

• Extension in crop production supported by NALEP

• Promotion of legume production and marketing(lucrative legume project) by CRS through

• Community training on value addition of baobab and tamarids in Ikutha

District wide the situation of the natural vegetation and pastures is good. In the mixed farming livelihood zone the situation of the vegetation is good and improving. In the marginal mixed farming livelihood zone the situation varied from one division to the other, in Yongela and Kisayani locations the pasture situation is fair.

The water situation in the district improved. This improvement is attributed to the rains that were received during the month. The main source of water was traditional river wells and pans/dams.

The improvement in the quantity of water has reduced the walking distances and enabled the communities to invest their time in cultivation

The livestock body conditions continued to improve in all the livelihood zones. This trend is expected to continue owing to the availability of forage and water at near distances

In the marginal mixed farming livelihood zone an outbreak of foot and mouth disease and lumpy skin disease in cattle were reported.

The stages of crop development vary from one livelihood zone to the other but overall crops are doing well in the mixed farming livelihood zone which covers Kitui district. In the marginal mixed farming livelihood zone which currently administratively covers Mutomo district most farmers did not plant and for those who planted their crop is fair and is showing signs of water stress.

Beans- the early planted crop is at flowering stage in most farms whereas the late planted crop is at germination stage. In the marginal mixed farming zone the crop is experiencing moisture stress.

Maize- in the mixed farming livelihood zone the early planted maize is one metre high and doing well.

Pigeon peas- this crop is doing well in the mixed farming livelihood zone and majority are at flowering stage. In the marginal mixed farming livelihood zone there were signs of stress in Ikutha, and in a few locations in Mwitika, and Mutomo divisions.

The short season pigeon peas which is currently being consumed green has spared farmers the cost of buying beans

The outbreak of FMD and LSD in Mutomo district is threatening to erode the gains obtained in the livestock sector following the last two season’s successful rain seasons in the area.

If the current trend in the situation of food crops in the farms in mixed farming livelihood zone continues farmers expect to have a fair-good harvest.

The price of cattle continued to drop. This decline is attributed to fall in demand following the end of farming season. During the month of February the prices were high due to increased demand for bulls for draught power.

The price of goats remained stable. This stability is attributed to good body conditions and absence of goat diseases. The prices ranged from Kshs. 1,175 in Mutitu to kshs2,304 in Yatta division.

There was improved milk consumption in the district. This increment in consumption is attributed to increased milk production due to availability of feed and water.

The average price of a kilo of maize slightly dropped. This decline is attributed to increased supply of the commodity both at the household and markets following a fair harvest from the short rains in the mixed farming livelihood zone and isolated sections in the marginal mixed farming livelihood zone. However in some sections of the district the prices remained high and more so in Mutomo district where a kilo was retailing at Kshs.17. The trend is not normal.

The income from sale of crops compared to other sources declined form 5% in the previous month to 4% currently. This drop is attributed to decline in food stocks at the household levels and signs of poor performance of the long rains.

The percentage of income derived from sale of livestock remained constant (6%) as compared to the month of March.

Casual labour remained the main source of income for the community. The percentage of proceeds from casual labour rose to 40% from 36% reported in March. This rise is attributed to the to job opportunities in the farms during the planting and weeding periods. Others sources include, remittances 21%, salary 12%, petty trade 12% and sale of charcoal 5%.

The drop in the price of the main cereal crop in the district points at increased access to the commodity by the majority.

The price of livestock remained an indication that farmers are getting a fair bargain for their products.

The nutrition status for children under the age of five years remained within the previous months ranges. The highest levels of malnutrition were reported in Yatta and Ikutha divisions at 11% and 9% respectively. These particular divisions experienced a poor performance of the short rains thus are experiencing food shortages.

The table below shows the water sources in use and the % number of households accessing them during the month of April as compared to March